
Rabobank reports that the global poultry market is performing relatively well in the second half of 2018 but is being challenged by trade volatility, mainly linked to Brazil. Other challenges include rising grain and oilseed price volatility from drought and trade issues, and concerns about avian influenza as the northern hemisphere winter approaches.
Analyst Nan-Dirk Mulder says China's African swine fever outbreak could indirectly affect global poultry markets.
A large liquidation of China's pig herd could pressure Chinese meat prices and, later, shift demand toward poultry. Grain and oilseed volatility also feeds through to poultry costs.
After 159 past bearish report events, HOGS moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +1.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.