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Rabobank reports record pigs per litter and a 1.2% decline in the breeding herd, with producers reducing farrowing intentions for late 2023 and early 2024. Ham values fell 19% year over year while belly and loin values were steady.
Higher productivity and seasonally larger supplies are expected to pressure hog prices, though lower 2024 feed costs could improve producer returns.
After 159 past bearish report events, HOGS moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.