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On 17 September 2018, Egypt's Ministry of Trade and Industry quadrupled the export duty on nitrogen fertilizers under Decree 774/2018. The higher duty is set to run for one year, until 17 September 2019.
Egypt is a significant nitrogen exporter, so a higher export duty can reduce exportable tonnage and support global urea and ammonia prices. Buyers should expect firmer nitrogen costs through the coming year.
After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.