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Drought in France worsened in some regions during a dry, warm September, and a sharp drop in rapeseed plantings was widely expected. Terres Univia estimates rapeseed sowings will fall by 150,000 to 250,000 hectares, and farmers are shifting toward wheat.
Lower rapeseed area cuts future EU canola meal and oil supply, while more wheat planting adds to future wheat supply, so the net effect is bullish for rapeseed-based meal and mildly bearish for wheat.
reuters.comSep 28, 2018Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
