
Andrew Wheeler, the acting EPA administrator, testified before the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee on August 1 and addressed the Renewable Fuel Standard and small refinery hardship exemptions. The EPA had issued 48 such waivers to refineries, a number that has grown under the Trump administration.
Refinery exemptions reduce the volume of biofuel blending required, which weakens demand for soybean oil and corn-based ethanol. Continued waiver use is bearish for those feedstock prices.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 310 past bearish policy events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.