Argentina's three major oilseed crops, soybeans, peanuts and sunflower seeds, have all faced setbacks in 2018 that have reduced production outlooks. A USDA report puts Argentine peanut output at 792,000 tons, the lowest in 10 years, due to unstable weather and disease.
Sunflower seeds fared somewhat better.
Lower Argentine oilseed output tightens global supply of soybean meal and sunflower meal and oil, supporting prices for feed protein and vegetable oils.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 184 past bullish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.