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Signal Group analyses how Argentine drought is shifting soybean and wheat flows and freight. USDA cut Argentine wheat to 12.5 million tonnes in its December report, while Canadian production is down and Australian output is forecast at a record.
Argentine soy and wheat shortfalls tighten export supplies and push buyers toward other origins, supporting soybean and wheat prices while shifting dry bulk routes.
thesignalgroup.comSignal OceanDec 22, 2022After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
