Oil World now expects 2021/22 global rapeseed output of 63.7 million tonnes, below last season's 64.7 million and down from an earlier 65.4 million forecast. The cut reflects heat and drought that left more than 50% of Saskatchewan's canola in poor or very poor condition by late July.
Ukraine's harvest is fairly good and Australian prospects look optimistic.
A smaller global rapeseed crop tightens vegetable oil and meal supplies, supporting canola meal and soybean oil prices. Offsetting Australian and Ukrainian supply limits how far prices can rise.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 184 past bullish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.