S&P Global's quarterly oil outlook says European diesel and gasoil markets are firming with the seasonal winter heating demand. Low Rhine water levels have been raising barge freight costs over the summer and sinking the gasoil market.
Higher European barge freight and tighter inbound supply support regional diesel prices, which feed into the cost of moving commodities along the Rhine.
After 113 past bullish logistics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -2.8% to +4.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.