Two 'unstable' OPEC nations may decide whether oil hits $100

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Nov 30, 2020OPEC Meets To Decide Whether Cuts In Oil Production Are Still Needed : NPR+3.5%
• Nov 16, 2020OPEC+ Meetings Consider Further Action To Support Oil Market+5.3%
• Jul 2, 2018What higher oil prices mean for OPEC and the U.S. | Brookings-3.1%
• Jan 10, 2025Oil prices rally 3% as US hits Russian oil with tougher sanctions+5.4%
• Apr 5, 2026Opec+ approves ‘in principle’ May output increase amid war-related supply disruptions | The National-9.7%

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Nov 30, 2020OPEC Meets To Decide Whether Cuts In Oil Production Are Still Needed : NPR+1.5%
• Nov 16, 2020OPEC+ Meetings Consider Further Action To Support Oil Market+5.1%
• Jul 2, 2018What higher oil prices mean for OPEC and the U.S. | Brookings-0.3%
• Jan 10, 2025Oil prices rally 3% as US hits Russian oil with tougher sanctions+7.0%
• Apr 5, 2026Opec+ approves ‘in principle’ May output increase amid war-related supply disruptions | The National-13.2%