
Class III futures averaged $15.80 for the final two months of 2018 during mid-October trading. USDA economists estimated a 2019 All-Milk price of $17.30 per cwt, with Class III averaging $15.75, and dairy farmers culled 97,900 more cows than a year earlier.
Higher cow culling reduces the dairy herd over time, which can eventually tighten milk supply, though ample heifer supplies limit that effect near term.
After 136 past neutral report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.5%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.