
Washington Dairygrams notes that the government shutdown, now the longest in US history, has frozen many USDA reports, including milk production data. Futures showed steady improvement in Class III prices, with the April-June contracts near $15 and July-December near $16.20.
Delayed USDA data reduces price discovery and adds uncertainty for dairy markets. Futures already price in a gradual recovery in milk prices through the rest of 2019.
After 136 past neutral report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.5%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.