
Fitch Solutions expects palm oil companies to face slowing revenue and margins in FY2018-19 as prices stay weak, forecasting 2018 crude palm oil averaging RM2,340 a tonne versus RM2,704 in 2017. It flagged rising El Niño risk and dry weather in Indonesia that could hurt 2019 output.
Fitch's weak price outlook and El Niño risk point to ample near-term palm supply, while dryness in Indonesia could tighten vegetable oil supply into 2019.
After 29 past bearish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -2.2% to +0.6%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.