
Wheat led the market higher on Friday after the first US wheat sale to Egypt in more than a year, which indicated US prices are competitive. Gains faded overnight after good rains in Europe.
Stronger basis in export pipelines for corn, soybeans and wheat also supported prices.
Renewed export demand from a major importer like Egypt can firm US wheat prices and basis, though European rains limit upside for now.
After 431 past bullish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 102 past bullish trade events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.5%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.