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The 2014 farm bill expired on September 30, and most commodity programs are tied to crop years, so farmers keep their safety net. Some conservation program signups and trade promotion funding for commodity groups will be affected, and Congress is likely to pass an extension in December.
The expiration has limited direct price impact because commodity supports continue, but it creates uncertainty for conservation and export promotion spending that feed buyers should watch.
agri-pulse.comPhilip BrasherOct 3, 2018After 1,623 past policy events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 1,905 past policy events, SOY moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.8%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 1,019 past policy events, WHEAT moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
