◂ Event Timeline

Sep 30, 2018POLICYUS

Washington Week Ahead: Farm bill expires as talks turn bitter

Farm bill negotiations have turned partisan, and no further meetings of the four lead negotiators were scheduled. The 2014 law expired Sunday, and House and Senate leaders blamed each other for the impasse.

A House Agriculture member said the process was stalled over Senate demands.

WHY IT MATTERS

A lapse in the farm bill creates policy uncertainty for commodity programs and trade promotion, but without an immediate change to supply or export flows it has limited direct price effect.

AFFECTSCorn Soybeans Wheat (SRW)

SOURCE
agri-pulse.comPhilip BrasherSep 30, 2018

Price reaction & history

Cornno directional readSO FAR1d +0.8%5d +1.2%20d +0.7%

After 1,623 past policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.

Mar 26, 2017Washington Week Ahead: House Ag explores farm program changes | 2017-03-26 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+1.6%
Oct 3, 2018Farm bill expiration impact varies | 2018-10-02 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-1.7%
Nov 30, 2016Farm bill wheels starting to turn | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+4.0%
Oct 25, 2017Opinion: The Zero-Sum 2018 Farm Bill | 2017-10-25 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-1.4%
Apr 18, 2018House farm bill tees up fights over funding, policy | 2018-04-18 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-0.0%

Soybeansno directional readSO FAR1d +1.4%5d +2.8%20d -0.1%

After 1,905 past policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.8%), and +0.2% over 20.

Mar 26, 2017Washington Week Ahead: House Ag explores farm program changes | 2017-03-26 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-3.0%
Oct 3, 2018Farm bill expiration impact varies | 2018-10-02 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-0.3%
Nov 30, 2016Farm bill wheels starting to turn | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+0.5%
Oct 25, 2017Opinion: The Zero-Sum 2018 Farm Bill | 2017-10-25 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-0.2%
Apr 18, 2018House farm bill tees up fights over funding, policy | 2018-04-18 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-2.3%

Wheat (SRW)no directional readSO FAR1d +2.5%5d +2.9%20d +8.6%

After 1,019 past policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.2% over 20.

Mar 26, 2017Washington Week Ahead: House Ag explores farm program changes | 2017-03-26 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+2.4%
Oct 3, 2018Farm bill expiration impact varies | 2018-10-02 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-2.7%
Nov 30, 2016Farm bill wheels starting to turn | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+3.7%
Oct 25, 2017Opinion: The Zero-Sum 2018 Farm Bill | 2017-10-25 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-4.5%
Apr 18, 2018House farm bill tees up fights over funding, policy | 2018-04-18 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+0.1%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Corn CORN · GP ▸

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Soybeans SOY · GP ▸

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