◂ Event Timeline

Jul 26, 2023POLICYUS

Stakes for farm bill expiration lower this time, but 2024 impacts loom

Congress is heading into its August recess with about two months before some programs in the 2018 farm bill expire, and no draft of new legislation is yet available. Crop insurance, commodity support based on crop-year prices, and conservation programs funded through 2031 face no immediate impact.

Nutrition programs are reauthorized annually through appropriations.

WHY IT MATTERS

Because the near-term impact of a lapse is limited, the farm bill is unlikely to move feed grain or oilseed prices in the coming weeks. Uncertainty about 2024 support programs is a longer-term consideration for planting and marketing decisions.

AFFECTSCorn Soybeans Wheat (SRW)

SOURCE
agri-pulse.comPhilip BrasherJul 26, 2023

Price reaction & history

Cornno directional readSO FAR1d -1.9%5d -13.9%20d -17.3%

After 1,623 past policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.

Oct 3, 2018Farm bill expiration impact varies | 2018-10-02 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-1.7%
Mar 9, 2023House Ag makes case for new farm bill funding | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-1.0%
Nov 30, 2016Farm bill wheels starting to turn | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+4.0%
Oct 25, 2017Opinion: The Zero-Sum 2018 Farm Bill | 2017-10-25 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-1.4%
Aug 4, 2021Push for conservation funding raises farm bill questions | 2021-08-03 | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-1.0%

Soybeansno directional readSO FAR1d +2.0%5d -4.5%20d -10.8%

After 1,905 past policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.8%), and +0.2% over 20.

Oct 3, 2018Farm bill expiration impact varies | 2018-10-02 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-0.3%
Mar 9, 2023House Ag makes case for new farm bill funding | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-2.5%
Nov 30, 2016Farm bill wheels starting to turn | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+0.5%
Oct 25, 2017Opinion: The Zero-Sum 2018 Farm Bill | 2017-10-25 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-0.2%
Aug 4, 2021Push for conservation funding raises farm bill questions | 2021-08-03 | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+4.0%

Wheat (SRW)no directional readSO FAR1d -0.9%5d -0.6%20d -3.2%

After 1,019 past policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.2% over 20.

Oct 3, 2018Farm bill expiration impact varies | 2018-10-02 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-2.7%
Mar 9, 2023House Ag makes case for new farm bill funding | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-0.2%
Nov 30, 2016Farm bill wheels starting to turn | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+3.7%
Oct 25, 2017Opinion: The Zero-Sum 2018 Farm Bill | 2017-10-25 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-4.5%
Aug 4, 2021Push for conservation funding raises farm bill questions | 2021-08-03 | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-2.7%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Corn CORN · GP ▸

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Soybeans SOY · GP ▸

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