
The European Commission's latest short-term outlook puts 2018 EU total cereal production at 284.3 million tonnes, down 5% from 2017/18 and 8% below the five-year average. EU wheat output is forecast at 129 million tonnes, down 9% from 2017, with summer drought the main cause.
Sugar output is also expected to fall from last year's record.
A smaller EU cereal crop tightens feed grain supplies and supports wheat and barley prices, which raises costs for European and imported feed buyers.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.