Analysts suggest China may be obtaining US soybeans indirectly by buying from Argentina, which has been purchasing US beans. Standard Grain's Joe Vaclavik says this is unlikely because Argentina's drought left it short of supply.
Argentina booked 850,000 tonnes of US soybeans since September and plans to ship 1.8 million tonnes to China in the coming months.
Argentine imports of US beans to re-export to China would indicate sustained overall soybean demand. Argentina's shortfall means it needs US supply, which supports US soybean export prices.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.