◂ Event Timeline

Nov 13, 2018POLICYUS

Stung by trade wars, U.S. farmers hope for quick progress on Farm Bill

U.S. farmers are hoping for quick progress on a new Farm Bill after the 2014 bill expired on September 30 when talks over its replacement broke down. The current law funds crop subsidies, rural development and export market access programs.

WHY IT MATTERS

Uncertainty over the expired Farm Bill leaves support programs and export promotion funding unclear, which matters for farm planning. The direct price effect on feed grains is limited.

AFFECTSCorn Soybeans Wheat (SRW)

SOURCE
reuters.comHumeyra PamukNov 13, 2018

Price reaction & history

Cornno directional readSO FAR1d -0.8%5d -1.3%20d +6.4%

After 1,623 past policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.

Mar 22, 2018INSIDE WASHINGTON: Trade, SNAP hijack forward progress on farm bill-0.2%
Nov 19, 2018A $12 Billion Program to Help Farmers Stung by Trump’s Trade War Has Aided Few - The New York Times-1.4%
Jan 1, 2026Trump unveils $12 billion aid package for farmers hit by trade war+0.6%
Nov 28, 2018Penny for your corn? Stingy trade-war aid irks U.S. farmers+8.7%
May 21, 2019U.S. to favour soybeans in trade war aid for farmers - Bloomberg+2.4%

Soybeansno directional readSO FAR1d -0.5%5d +0.2%20d +5.5%

After 1,905 past policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.8%), and +0.2% over 20.

Mar 22, 2018INSIDE WASHINGTON: Trade, SNAP hijack forward progress on farm bill-1.1%
Nov 19, 2018A $12 Billion Program to Help Farmers Stung by Trump’s Trade War Has Aided Few - The New York Times-3.4%
Jan 1, 2026Trump unveils $12 billion aid package for farmers hit by trade war+1.6%
Nov 28, 2018Penny for your corn? Stingy trade-war aid irks U.S. farmers+4.1%
May 21, 2019U.S. to favour soybeans in trade war aid for farmers - Bloomberg+2.9%

Wheat (SRW)no directional readSO FAR1d -0.4%5d -0.6%20d +1.0%

After 1,019 past policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.2% over 20.

Mar 22, 2018INSIDE WASHINGTON: Trade, SNAP hijack forward progress on farm bill+0.1%
Nov 19, 2018A $12 Billion Program to Help Farmers Stung by Trump’s Trade War Has Aided Few - The New York Times-0.1%
Nov 28, 2018Penny for your corn? Stingy trade-war aid irks U.S. farmers+2.5%
May 21, 2019U.S. to favour soybeans in trade war aid for farmers - Bloomberg-13.2%
Sep 28, 2018Looming expiration of farm bill raises risks for trade promotion+2.6%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Corn CORN · GP ▸

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Soybeans SOY · GP ▸

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