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NIWA gives an 88% chance of non-traditional El Niño conditions developing from November to January, with above-average temperatures likely across most of the North Island. A Weather Watch forecaster questions how strong the El Niño will be, noting that sea temperatures off Australia and in the Tasman Sea are warmer than normal.
A stronger El Niño would mean drier conditions for New Zealand pasture and summer crops, which could tighten feed supply and lift the cost of imported feed. The forecast disagreement limits how much this affects prices.
farmersweekly.co.nzRichard RennieNov 6, 2018After 32 past bullish weather events, MILK moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.4%), and +3.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
