
EPA announced 4.92 billion gallons of advanced biofuels for 2019, including 418 million gallons of cellulosic, with 15 billion gallons of conventional fuel. Biofuel groups criticized the absence of language to reallocate small refinery exemption volumes, and Senator Grassley said he was optimistic about revisiting the practice.
Headline volumes support biodiesel and ethanol demand, but the lack of reallocation keeps effective demand below targets. A future reallocation could add biofuel demand and support soy oil.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 439 past neutral policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.