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EUR/USD climbed to a high of 1.1165 on 2 March 2020 as the carry trade continued to unwind and emerging markets sold off. US Treasury yields hit record lows and net euro short positioning was at a nine-month low before the squeeze.
Record-low US yields and dollar weakness reduce the dollar's yield advantage, which can support commodity prices and weigh on emerging-market currencies that affect feed import costs.
forexcrunch.comFX StreetMar 2, 2020After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Describes the 2 March EUR/USD jump to 1.1165 as carry trades unwound, Treasury yields hit record lows and a short squeeze hit euro shorts that were at a nine-month low, which directly explains the one-day move.
Carry trade unwind and a short squeeze from a nine-month-low net euro short position pushed EUR/USD to 1.1165 on 2 March, a key leg of the 5-day move.
Carry trade unwinding and record-low Treasury yields pushed EUR/USD higher on 2 March, weighing on the broad dollar.
