JS Global Capital estimates Pakistani urea offtake in November 2018 at about 511,000 tonnes, down 15% year-on-year, after pre-buying in October ahead of price hikes. DAP offtake is forecast to fall 32% year-on-year to 265,000 tonnes due to higher prices from exchange rate moves.
A forecast drop in Pakistani fertilizer demand signals softer regional buying, which is a minor bearish factor for urea and DAP prices.
After 42 past bearish report events, Urea moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.9% to +3.3%), and +2.9% over 20.
After 35 past bearish report events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.