Commentary: Fed still the only hiker in town, but dollar refuses to play ball

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, DXY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Jun 26, 2025Rand rallies to best level in 7 months as Trump’s Fed comment hits dollar | News24-0.9%
• Jun 29, 2017Dollar's Battle Gets Harder With Fed No Longer Only Hawk in Town - Bloomberg+0.3%
• Nov 2, 2022US dollar falls broadly after the Fed hints at a slower pace of rate hikes-1.4%
• Jun 29, 2026US Dollar Index: Fed hikes repriced on softer inflation – Deutsche Bank-0.0%
• Jan 4, 2021Baht rises on dollar sales due to Fed's fiscal policy-0.0%

After 388 past bullish macro events, EURUSD moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Nov 2, 2022US dollar falls broadly after the Fed hints at a slower pace of rate hikes+2.2%
• Jun 28, 2017Euro sees a roller-coaster ride post-Draghi as dollar bulls start to throw in the towel+0.3%
• Jan 30, 2019US Dollar In Sharp Sell-off Vs Euro, Pound As FED Confirms Will Be 'Patient' On Future Hikes-0.2%
• Jul 1, 2023Dollar weaker after data burst, euro rises on ECB comments+0.7%
• Apr 13, 2023Euro Surges to Strongest in a Year as Fed-Cut Bets Batter Dollar - Bloomberg-0.3%