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Fern published a paper proposing a toolbox of supply-side and demand-side measures for the EU to address forest-risk commodities such as palm oil, beef, soy, cocoa and timber. It argues the EU should harden voluntary international frameworks into binding measures, including enforcing FLEGT and EUTR rules against illegal forest conversion.
EU regulation of deforestation-linked imports could eventually restrict palm oil, soy and beef supply into Europe, a medium-term bearish signal for those imports. The proposal is still at discussion stage, so near-term price impact is limited.
fern.orgJanet Meissner PritchardDec 3, 2018After 399 past bearish policy events, PALMOIL moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 206 past neutral policy events, SBM moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
