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USDA reported October U.S. cheese production up 3% year over year at 1.119 billion pounds, and butter output rose 7%. Nonfat dry milk for human use fell 13.6%, while skim milk powder jumped 44.5%.
Record-level cheese and butter supplies from strong output and export competition point to softer dairy product prices, which weighs on milk and by-product demand.
After 273 past bearish report events, MILK moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.