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USDA data showed U.S. July 2021 cheese production rose 3.5% year over year to 1.149 billion pounds, led by a 6.5% gain in Italian-type cheese. Butter output fell 0.8% on the year, and cold storage figures pointed to slower demand.
Strong cheese output adds supply to the dairy complex, which is mildly bearish for milk prices. The report has little direct effect on feed grain or meal demand.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.