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A Brookings analysis says Russian border patrol ships seized three Ukrainian naval vessels on November 25 while they were transiting the Kerch Strait to Azov ports. The author argues the attack signals a Russian push to control the strait and possibly blockade Ukrainian Azov ports.
A sustained Russian blockade of Azov ports would threaten a small share of Ukrainian grain exports and raise risk premiums on Black Sea supply. Price impact stays limited unless the blockade widens to main Black Sea ports.
brookings.eduSteven PiferDec 3, 2018After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
