
The Canadian dollar fell nearly 8% against the US dollar in 2018, losing almost 6% in the fourth quarter amid falling oil, trade tensions and a stronger US dollar. It had risen about 1% early in 2019 to around 74 US cents, and analysts see it as still expensive.
A weaker loonie makes Canadian exports cheaper and supports Canadian-origin commodity competitiveness, while the 2018 oil slump shows how energy weakness transmits to currency and export pricing.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 102 past neutral macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -3.3% to +2.5%), and +1.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.