
Indonesia intends to challenge the EU's RED II renewable energy directive at the WTO, arguing it unfairly targets palm oil. Jakarta says palm oil will be labelled high risk in a delegated act due in early February and is reviewing ties with the EU.
The EU accounted for about 15 percent of Indonesia's palm exports, worth over $15 billion last year.
A WTO dispute and possible trade friction with the EU could disrupt palm oil flows to Europe and weigh on palm prices, while the high-risk label cuts EU biofuel demand.
After 158 past bearish trade events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.8%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.