Trade war effects are reducing U.S. ethanol production, which is raising the cost of distillers dried grains used in animal feed. Reuters reports that cuts are tightening DDGS supply and pushing livestock buyers toward soybean meal, whose price fell after China halted U.S. soybean imports.
The shift is concentrated in the hog sector, and China has stopped buying U.S. DDGS.
Tighter DDGS supply lifts feed costs for hog producers and moves demand into soymeal, pressuring soymeal prices.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.