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The US cattle inventory is at a 74-year low while cattle and retail beef prices are at record highs ahead of peak grilling season. An American Farm Bureau economist warned that consumer willingness to keep buying beef at high prices is uncertain, and New World Screwworm remains a threat.
A historically small herd keeps cattle and beef prices elevated, but demand risk at record retail prices and screwworm threats could cap upside and create volatility.
agweek.comAriana SchumacherJul 1, 2025After 148 past bullish disease events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.2%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 122 past bullish disease events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
