Belize's Ministry of Agriculture is increasing surveillance of illegal border crossings to block screwworm, which has been found about 50 km from the Honduras border in Nicaragua. The ministry says informal cattle trade across Central America and into Mexico and the US is a major pathway.
Growing screwworm proximity to Mexico heightens the risk of US border restrictions on Mexican feeder cattle, a key supply source for US feedlots.
After 122 past bullish disease events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 148 past bullish disease events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.2%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.