
Mexico tentatively decided at the end of 2018 to ban high-sulfur diesel and move to ULSD only. Due to fuel shortages from pipeline theft, the government is expected to grant a six-month exemption in the Bajio and Central regions.
The delay gives Pemex refineries more time to adapt their equipment.
Mexico's ULSD switch would add diesel import demand, but the six-month delay reduces near-term pressure on US Gulf diesel exports and prices.
After 90 past bullish policy events, DIESEL moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (66% higher; middle half -1.9% to +4.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.