ABARES forecasts that dry, warm conditions in Queensland and northern NSW cut the 2018-19 summer crop area by 23 per cent to about 1.0 million hectares. Production is seen falling 33 per cent to about 2.7 million tonnes, with grain sorghum down 9 per cent and rice down 83 per cent.
Sharply lower sorghum and rice output tightens east-coast feed grain supply, supporting sorghum prices and encouraging buyers to shift to substitutes like corn and barley.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.