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Lombard Odier says the Fed over-delivered with its dovish pivot, pushing the dollar lower. The bank maintains a bearish dollar view, forecasting a trade-weighted depreciation of 8-10% in 2019, underweighting USD against JPY and EUR.
A forecast of sustained dollar weakness would tend to support dollar-denominated commodity prices over the coming year.
lombardodier.comVasileios Gkionakis, PhDFeb 1, 2019After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
