
Barclays analysts argue that the multi-year US dollar rally is at risk of ending unless the Trump administration delivers a substantial fiscal boost including tax reform. Markets have concluded that the promised tax and spending plans will be far smaller than campaign pledges.
The dollar is currently the second-worst performer among the ten largest currencies.
A weaker dollar would lift dollar-denominated commodity prices and make US feed exports more competitive abroad. Buyers should watch whether fiscal policy stalls the dollar's rise.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.