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Lombard Odier expects the dollar to weaken in 2019 after its 2018 rally, which was driven by wider US-rest of world rate differentials. It expects US fiscal stimulus to fade and the twin-deficit problem to raise US risk premia.
The bank also flagged global downturn and US-China trade escalation as risks to its view.
A weaker dollar in 2019 would support US dollar-denominated grain and meal exports. The forecast depends on trade and growth risks that could change the outlook.
lombardodier.comVasileios Gkionakis, PhDNov 13, 2018After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
