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AP reports that soybeans have become a central bargaining chip in U.S. trade talks with China and the EU, even though they make up under 1% of U.S. exports. In talks with China, Beijing agreed to buy 5 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans over an unspecified period.
Critics argue the focus on purchases distracts from deeper economic reforms.
The unspecified 5-million-tonne pledge adds uncertain export demand that the market must price in until volumes and timing are known. Soybean meal demand from U.S. crushers depends on how much of that pledge is actually shipped.
pbs.orgPaul Wiseman, Associated PressFeb 5, 2019After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 342 past bullish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +2.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
