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Brazil's Ibovespa gained 8.29% in the first quarter of 2025, while the Nasdaq fell 10.42%, as investors reallocated capital from the US to Europe, China and emerging markets. Fears of a US recession grew after weak consumer confidence and rising inflation expectations.
Capital flowing into Brazil and a weaker dollar support the real and make it easier for Brazilian borrowers to finance operations. A stronger real lowers USD/BRL, which can dampen the competitiveness of Brazilian commodity exports.
valorinternational.globo.comBruna Furlani, Maria Fernanda Salinet, Luana Reis, Gabriel CaldeiraApr 1, 2025After 213 past bearish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
