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Algeria's president Abdelaziz Bouteflika said he would not seek re-election, adding political uncertainty to another OPEC member. Algeria is a small producer, but the IEA estimates that about 40% of OPEC capacity, roughly 34.6m b/d in total, is exposed to political risk.
Iraq holds the largest share of that at-risk capacity.
A growing share of OPEC capacity facing political risk raises the chance of supply disruptions, which would support crude prices and energy costs for feed producers.
emiratesnbdresearch.comEdward BellMar 13, 2019After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
