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The upper Mississippi remains closed to barges while the Lake Pepin ice is still too thick to break through. High water is also disrupting traffic south to the Gulf, with Locks 16 through 22 expected to close and the Ohio River at Cairo above major flood stage.
Grain and fertilizer movements for spring planting are being held up.
Widespread river closures lift freight costs and delay fertilizer deliveries, while holding grain supplies back from export positions and weighing on Midwest cash prices.
After 297 past bearish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 359 past bearish logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 49 past bullish logistics events, Urea moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.2%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
