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Brazil's soybean crop estimates were raised after better-than-expected yields in Rio Grande do Sul, where recent rains followed weeks of dryness. USDA lifted its Brazil forecast by 500,000 mt to 117 million mt, and Conab raised its figure by 300,000 mt to 113.8 million mt.
Most Rio Grande do Sul farmers sell on the spot market, so a larger share of this crop remains unsold.
A bigger Brazilian crop with less forward selling means more supply is likely to reach spot markets during harvest, which pressures soybean prices and limits premiums. Buyers can expect more competition from Brazilian beans.
commodityconversations.comAgriCensusApr 17, 2019After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 118 past bearish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -3.2% to +0.4%), and -1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
