A USDA attaché report says Ukrainian soybean plantings will fall about 11% to 1.6 million hectares in 2019-20 after tax changes made crushing more profitable than exporting. Production is forecast to drop 22% to 3.5 million tonnes, and exports are expected to fall 37%.
Smaller Ukrainian soybean supply and exports tighten the Black Sea oilseed balance, which is mildly supportive for soybeans and soybean meal.
After 356 past bullish policy events, SOY moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 172 past bullish policy events, SBM moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and -0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.