Iowa State's dairy outlook summarizes the April WASDE, which lowered the 2019 milk production forecast as higher cow numbers were offset by slower per-cow growth. Cheese price forecasts were raised, butter, NDM and whey were lowered, and the all-milk price was raised to $17.25-$17.75/cwt.
Lower projected milk output and a higher all-milk price point to firmer milk prices, while lower whey and NDM values weigh on byproduct feed inputs.
After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.