Barge movement on the Mississippi River system has been slowed by high water, according to DTN analyst Mary Kennedy. Ice on the Illinois River in January and new flood water have prevented barges from reaching some loading spouts, and basis levels along the river are weak.
Barges unable to load at river terminals force grain to wait or move by other modes, which weakens local basis and widens the spread between river and rail-served prices.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 359 past bearish logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 297 past bearish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.