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Ammonia is the softest part of the fertilizer complex as retail prices stall late in planting, leaving dealers with leftover supplies. Black Sea urea slipped below $200/t, well under the May Gulf settlement, while urea gained wholesale and retail as nitrogen shortages persisted at northern river terminals.
Barges are moving upriver again but likely too late to ease shortages.
Weak global nitrogen prices and cheap Black Sea supply point to lower fertilizer costs later, while late-season shortages keep near-term urea firm, a factor for feed grain margins and corn-versus-soy planting choices.
ritzwhse.comMay 17, 2019After 284 past neutral logistics events, CORN moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.4%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 64 past logistics events, UREA moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.3%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
