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The Federal Reserve held rates, and the dollar index rose slightly as traders trimmed bets on rate cuts later in 2019. Interest rate futures showed a 49% chance of a Fed cut this year, down from 61%.
US job cut data and weak jobless numbers were also flagged.
A firmer dollar on reduced rate-cut expectations pressures dollar-priced commodities and can weigh on US export competitiveness for feed grains. The move is modest and reflects central bank expectations.
blog.fxcc.comNidal ThuminatMay 3, 2019After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
