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Trade tensions between the US and China are drawing foreign-exchange markets in, with central banks in China, South Korea and Indonesia taking steps to support their currencies. Options traders priced about a 35% chance that the yuan weakens past 7 per dollar by year-end, up from 15% in March.
The stronger dollar is near its yearly highs.
A stronger dollar and currency defense across emerging markets raise import costs for feed-buying countries and can soften US commodity export prices.
business-standard.comSusanne Barton, Ben Bartenstein, BloombergMay 23, 2019After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 398 past bullish macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
